Wednesday, September 18, 2013
ZeroPoint Slinky
Awhile back I
mentioned what I called big slinky. It
was an outgrowth of my research in music theory – not the conventional music
theory such as began with Rameau, and I suppose Piston is known in the US and Schoenberg, certainly and finally Schillinger in the 30’s and 40’s – although I
am familiar with them, mostly Schoenberg who’s theory such as it is theory is
simply a compendium of ways to modulate from one key to .
Schillinger, the master of Gerswhin,
Coppola, Miller, Levant and others has a
theory that touches upon Slinky theory
in that it encompasses disciplines beyond sound.
Notions of beauty such as
postulated by Plato and Edmund Burke were based on symmetry and consistency.
As the case may be however the adage
about truth and beauty being the same, put forth by John Keats is not exactly
true in the sense it once was.
(As an aside Keats fell in love with a
beautiful girl named I think Fanny, but he was not of the upper class and could
not convince her to take the step to marry.
He then took a walking tour of the north, cause cold and subsequently
died. Ain’t beauty a bitch? I mention this because I dare say had he
waited a while Dear Fannys looks would
have faded and he would not have had to die.)
Anyway the modern way of perceiving
beauty is as more of a process then an eternal state. Better a living woman
with zits then a corpse with perfect skin, but to each his own.
The most exciting thing about Zero Point
theory is that people, well smart people, are coming upon an understanding of
it from all directions. Not only that
but there’s a group of researchers who believe the essential concepts have been
around at times, in human history, for thousands of years. I personally try to
remain in the realm of the provable.
It’s just s theory though, It’s not
like quantum teleportation to the other side of the universe instantly. Then
again quantum information theory suggests that we can send a yes/no message,
like a telegraph - but I am meandering. Theories are like maps and as my old master
teacher Albert Jesson would say, “Maps were sent.”
Previously I only mentioned
Big Slinky in passing because I’m very sensitive to the notion of being thought
of as a “nutcase” or in the category of flying saucer abductees. This
can be thought of as an unfortunate legacy of growing up in a country
where intellectual efforts are considered proof of depravity.
Also the thing with “big slinky” is the more
one learns about it the crazier one sounds
and as well, there’s the classic objection to the advocate of new
ideas - if you’re so smart and the idea
is so good why hasn’t anyone else thought of it. This is actually a false argument. If someone else had thought of it it would
not be a new idea.
Scientists and the like,
intelligentsia, call this type of thinking “on the frontier”, or the border and
many a experimenter trades a life of
comparative luxury for the opportunity to be on the cutting edge of whatever
field they are engaged in.
Well I am happy to say that big
slinky has been discovered in many fields. I came upon it initially via, of all
people, Kepler. The early Moog model D’s
were bitches to play - they had no idea of what we call pitch - but on the
other hand they were marvelous instructional devices as per the overtone series
and anyway I had for a long time been interested in the idea of the scale
system that will follow the current tempered one.
It will happen that tones will
change via variation not of the overall pitch but rather of the partials , or
overtones. Notes will not leap, but rather morph and likewise the distinction
between partials, notes and chords will vanish.
This will take a deal of computation power and I am not sure we will see
it in our lifetimes.
The Dutch have done a lot of work on the
theoretical side and the French, eg IRCAM
have been focused on timbre
variation for awhile, but specifically since Debussy.
Getting back to Kepler though he apparently sought the infamous “music
of the spheres” which I never
understood. It is his laws of planetary motion however that have the most relevance
to the construction of musical scales.
(The first thing you learn in such
research is that scales are not musically perfect. And thus to create say a
tempered scale things have to be bent.
Of course if we could bend the universe to match our harps this problem
would not exist but the problems in doing such a thing I believe are obvious.)
And again the so called perfect
scales, early versions, did not allow for modulation, one was kept in limits of
mode for instance and this can be compared with the Ptolemaic Universe with its
various circles upon circles. The elliptical Universe of Kepler which is proven
beyond doubt both in theory and observation eliminates the superfluous math.
There’s an amusing story about him. He
had to halt his work in the middle of observations to go bail his mother out of
jail. Her crime? Well in the Europe
of the day a woman without a man who owned something that someone else wanted
was a certain target for the responsible members of society. Hence the accusation was witch craft and they
wanted to burn her at the stake but Johannes got her ass out of the sling.
I have visited the Hansel and
Gretel towns in Alsace
some of which are unchanged for centuries and there amid the picture book fairy
tale ambience is invariably the dungeons
and torture chambers where truth and falsehood, good and bad were ascertained.
The point about big slinky is that
one of Keplers laws is that planetary orbits are elliptical - it is because they are elliptical that
gravity can do it’s thing and planets continue to revolve around larger
gravitational masses, eg the sun. This was controversial, because in his way Kepler was also a
potential witch, or devil worshiper, because the circle is beloved of God.
Since God made the universe he must have made a lot of circles.
Circles, or in other words, the myth of
the eternal return, allow us to believe we are all geniuses.
The “road” or orbital path, can be
compared to the variations of PI the strange attractor takes as it traverses
the eternal path to infinity. Thus, in
the same way Einstein revealed that mass
and energy were variations of a continuum one can suggest that mass and nothingness are variations along a
continuum. Think Fractals. And it’s all
done with math.
This theory does not so much tell
us why things come into being as how.
If you have a cookie cutter pattern it will tell you the shape of the
cookie but not, of course, the substance.
I wouldn’t dare mention this
stuff in polite conversation where it to exist only in my head, but fortunately
other people have come up with the same idea, or the same idea fixee. As
well they have even begun to research the history of this idea , as
evidence by astrological monuments throughout the world.
Fortunately we don’t need alien visitations to
make the idea work. While language continues to expand, human computational and
observational ability has been much the same
for awhile, from, in fact, long before the advent of spoken language. I
am suggesting this on the basis of the
total period of evolution.
The usual name for what I’ve called big
slinky is Zero Point Theory. It has even made it to the TV sci-fi shows in the
form of the Zero point module on the Stargate Atlantis program.
So you can google it.
This ridiculously long intro was inspired by , yes , the blues
project.
I don’t know how valid the
complaint against the music industry is.
One is they are greedy, but that is part of the greater corporate
greediness picture. The other is they are superficial and that too is part of a
greater picture.
I am happy to say that these issues
stand a good chance of heralding the collapse of western society and the
end of humankind as we know it.
It serves the bastards right. Fuck
Caligula, Fuck Nero, Fuck the whole lot of them.
Actually I have known young
actors, well , and they are basically the kids in high school that were into
English class, and the debate society.
It’s not that exciting a life, especially if you don’t like getting up
at six in the morning.
And the peeps on Good morning America
etc, with their plastic surgery and their beta blockers and their mood
elevators can have their humanity justly questioned. It’s not just the music
industry then. It’s society. We like pretty people, we like happy people, yadda
yadda.
I went through that intro on Zero
point theory because it’s important to understand that often new ideas and good
ideas hurt our preconceived notions - notions such as “I am going to live
forever”
In a way dialectical thinking is
linear - it says, she loves me, she loves me not, and so on. But that’s not
necessarily reality. No love is all love.
In other words love requires us to keep in mind tow opposite thoughts at
the same time.
Some people in the music industry
tend I think to try to be overly cynical, but by and large one thing they tend
to agree on is that the ones who make it are, for lack of a better word,
motivated. They feel they have
something to say.
I can’t count the number of really
talented people who just did not want to
be performers - and I can understand it .
The other thing is quite pragmatic.
It is a working knowledge of a wide spectrum of the styles of the field. That,
in a nutshell, is what made the Beatles great.
And ironically it means you don’t
have to be the absolute best in any genre.
Okay so now I am going to repeat what I
just said. In an ordinary dialect, such as the yin/yang symbol or the
thing and no-thing he two opposites are presumed to be about eual, only different in composition. In
some ways E=Mcsqared is easy to comprehend because we can imagine a mass like a
log of wood, being set alight and there you have it - wood turns to heat.
As I understand it, Zero point
theory is a little different. Imagine a dot, or point, and a plane. Let’s, for
the ase of visualization imagine a small rubber ball and a piece of paper.
Angle the paper downwards and the ball will roll down the hill, propelled by
our old friend gravity. Now imagine the
sheet of a paper is a cone, or better yet a mobius strip - and the ball has a
long way to fall, forever in fact. The ball is the strange attractor, the paper
is pi and the variance from pi, both positive and negative is the known time
space continuum. The variance appears in orbits and in fractal shaping of land
masses, as well as in living things such as ourselves.
What set it in motion is a difficult
question and probably not one we ought ask because motion, in this sense, does
not exist. It is a little like the difference between becoming and being. The
designated differences are illusion,
Another way to look at it is as a coloring book where the outline has
been drawn in black ink and the flat spaces are gradually filled in by colors.
So simple a child could do it! And we
call the child God.
Part b-
It is not uncommon in the music industry to come across people who have been at it for awhile
declaring that the crucial difference between those making it and those who don’t
is “having something to say.” This sounds a little idiotic but it is not that
far off base.
In some cases the artist may be motivated by the need to forget about
some pain or another. One the pain, of adolescence for instance is gone the
artistic urge follows soon after. I’ve
been at this awhile now I’ve probably done as much hammering out of words and
meaning as your average supreme court judge
In one of my many bands the drummer told
the story of a group where the lead singer would regularly drink a bottle of
liquor and pass out on the stage. “Horrified
was my reply but he informed us that “the audience loved it.”
I tell this story to suggest thst not only
are performers maladjusted by audiences are as well.
Consider this thought experiment
which I have used many times, Ordinarily I use the statement as an example of
something that would creep a listener out, but aft a few yeares I realize that
it was not only the message the singer was sending but the message the audience
was sending to the performer.
It is “I guess I just want you to
like.love me more then I like myself.”
That is what the performer is often thinking
In short we are not always as
pathetic as we act.
Frog shell pig flip gold fish
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Ollie Oxen free
Intro
The
question as to who reads this blog (and why) seems particularly
relevant to the present issue.
First,
as always, the joke, which is our running gag about being the most
important website on the planet. It amused me early on because not
only does everybody feel thier effort is primary but more importantly
because it addresses a core issue on the net, which is the data
flood.
To
navigate the sites you have portals like Google and to navigate
personalities you have Facebook certainly neither of which is unique,
but both gain from the perception, at least, of being most efficient.
This
leads us to another joke. Question:"What is the purpose of
life?" Answer:"The creation of ever more efficient and
beautiful machines." Har har There there, don't scratch your
head and pretend you don't understand. The stock market measures
things the way I have described and not according to some vague
measures sure as self actualization. Old yuppies will remember the
saying that the person who dies with the most toys “wins.”
In
politics the logic is brutal. We insist on being parsimonious with
the lives of human beings – our moral sense insists on it – yet
who do we provide for? Robots?
In
any case these essays have a self limiting function built in, which
is in part intentional, although it makes it easier for me. Well over
99% of the public doesn't understand them. Most people have not
matriculated at several secondary schools and even more to the point
most people do not have the opportunity to spend a lifetime doing
what they are interested in.
But
this is not to say there are no models for what I have attempted. I
met Ester Dyson, in the mid 90's. after she had spent several years
in the funky Russia of the day and she was starting up what could be
called a zine called Version 1.0. She's certainly no dummy but I
felt she was a little naive as far as her optimistic projections as
to what all this data collection would lead to.
To
some extent she was prescient in suggesting the tagging of
interstitial s, eg google's adding selective adverts to Gmail, but in
other cases she seemed oblivious to the power that was going to be
given to the corporations. Since then I think she's probably pulled
back a little. The credit crunch of 08 displayed the notion that
just because you can sell something doesn't make it worthwhile.
In
any event Ester was selling V 1.0, which was four or six pages,
without adverts for several hundred dollars an issue. Most people
think that's expensive but at some levels of expertise it's a drop in
the bucket, especially if you are making multi million dollar
decisions.
Another
model which I was introduced to early on when I was writing for the
Justice department, right out of school. These are the Presidential
Info sheets. Again they are rarely more then a page or two and have
to encapsulate the context and options available. (Note: I am not
saying I wrote any of these papers, meant for the President’s desk,
only that I had access to a very selective few. The President at the
time was Reagan who was noted for political orientation, but at the
information level, at least, this ideological “spin” was kept to
a minimum.)
And
finally , as those who have invested substantially in the stock
market know, most "tip sheets"(that's the vulgar name) are
no more then a few pages long and even that is mostly filler. This
is by no means to denigrate the value of information, but real
information is damned near impossible to find and what is more is the
specificity of information.
There
is a series of tests I introduce in casual conversation to determine
the character of the people I am working with. Most of the time they
aren't needed. One can wing it and simply sit back and listen to what
the person is saying, really saying, and go with your gut.
But
one of these tests is when I ask the person if they feel that ability
is specific as to one field or if someone who excels in one field
would excel in others. If they say the latter then there is a good
possibility that they have not really been tested in the crucible of
imposed failure. Experience teaches us that we are lucky enough to
know the necessary thing well - because that's where the competition
lies.
And
so, I have left these essays in the darkest corner I can find. The
mafia kingpin says "lawyers I can buy" and likewise I have
not sought to diversify. I began as, if anything, too diverse and it
is only now that the real fruits of concentrated study are being
seen. We don't advertise - We do virtually none of the things
guaranteed to make one a successful blog - such as offering how to
fix it advice. Or putting in key words to fool the robots or posting
in high traffic sites and including the url.
In
fact the mind is paradoxical. Marketing books will tell that in many
circumstances the correct price is higher rather then lower. And if
you listen to say, Old Time Radio, at times there is strong
attraction to the adverts. We all claim to hate advertising but I
suggest one not jump to conclusions before the facts are in.
In
some regards I have sort of a Teutonic attitude towards this project.
I realize that it has a limited audience and to this end I have to
leave it for you to find me. If you did then congratulate yourself.
If you found me and feel I have sparked some ideas in your mind - I
regard my efforts as worthwhile.
the main section
We
were surreptitiously pushing the latest single. It was late in the
Carter administration. The song was was called “Big Silence”
and it was a homage of sorts to Laurie Anderson’s “Big Science”.
We were still teenagers and originality was not our strong suit.
(Come to think of it it never even became our strong suit.)
I
can still remember the chorus after all these years.,
“Neutron
bomb, Neutron bomb
There
is no big noise with a neutron bomb
But
there’s a big silence, big silence”
Lyric
poetry this was not.
There’s
a theory that the reason why Marijuana is taking so long to legalize
when for instance almost anyone can buy a multiple round assault
gun, is the pot has comparatively little in the way of negative side
effects.
Since
everything pleasurable is sinful and there fore must be punished this
is against the way of the vengeful God. Alcohol gives you
hangovers. Narcotics get you addicted - so they are okay, decent
things.
The
beautiful thing about the Neutron bomb, and chemical weapons is they
kill people and leave the more valuable things, like property, alone.
There isn’t much talk about the Neutron Bomb nowadays. I wonder
where it went?
Kollywood, bless
their mercenary little souls, has not forgot. Abiut ten years ago
there was a spat of TV programs all based on the premise that
humanity had be forced to the pre-technological era. Very amusing.
One
“cousin” of the neutron bomb is the Electromagnetic Pulse weapon,
or EMP, both these weapons have disadvantages however. One is they
don’t kill people, and that is one of the goals of warfare. The
other is the destruction of the administrative infrastructure
which then has to be repaired.
Then
again creative thinkers can see this as an advantage as in the case
where the only communications devices are in your hands and all you
have to do is pry them from the dead hands of the people you have
killed.
It
raises a question we have not dealt for over two thousand years. If
you read the Bible you realize that there was a like of smiting and
smoting and basically it was take no prisoners except for slaves and
if you were say a Viking you only took slaves when you were in a good
mood.
It
has to do, basically with what the Brits, in their warm hearted way,
call “good value.” Joan Baez, an opponent of the VietNam war
pointed out that she could not actually see the day when the Viet
Cong would march down Main Street USA and take over the drug store,
which was one of the arguments of the pro war crowd.
It
points out that a constantly changing aspect of war is civilian
participation. The American Civil war was so “Civilized” that the
ladies of nearby towns would pack a lunch, dress in their best gowns
and stand on nearby hills to observe the progress of battles. In
warfare, such as the Napoleonic conflicts war was a matter of set
armies having set battles at set places, usually places out of the
way - because it was understood that the winner would want to own the
property they fought for. My own forebearers, from Alsace-Lorraine
had the experience of seeing themselves change from French to German
to French to German and so on, as the land changed hands constantly.
(Meanwhile the actual inhabitants kept on growing wine and making
pastries.)
When
in 1941 an increasing frustrated Josef Goebells, propaganda minister
of the third reich, declared “This is it! Enough is enough! From
now on it’s total war.” He was referring to a specific concept,
one that he hadn’t really paid attention previously anyway. It was
the idea that henceforth civilians would be considered legitimate
targets.
In
reality this was already in place, because the Luftwaffe had been
bombing civilians since 1938. What is more such bombing was
primarily a terror tactic since it tended to have little impact on a
nations ability to wage war - and indeed the case is made that it was
counterproductive in stiffening the enemies resistance.
Suffice
to say the invention of the nuclear bomb changed everything. Now it
was the soldiers, in bunkers who’d survive and the civilians who
would die, indiscriminately.
As
stated. Compared to a nuke, chemical weapons are discrete - the only
kill the living.
Now
comes the nasty part.
Joyce described the
history of history as Circus Vicus, which was a reference to a
fifteenth century Italian historian, Giambattista Vico who believed in a cyclical model
of human history. The opposite is called teleological and it says
that humanity is moving straight towards some end or another, for our
purposes that can be either good or bad.
I
find it often wise to remind myself that progress is a funny critter.
Specifically slavery appears then goes away then comes back and never
seems to go away totally. Likewise monarchy seems a function of
environment.
Some
early wars, when life was scarce, consided of one or two champions
fighting to the death - simply because they could not afford to lose
more men. Then in tribal conflicts over limited terrain the
extermination of entire tribes comes to be.
We
are currently in a period of sufficient, if not over population. The
elites in universities with one or two children are not overly
sympathetic to the groundling with his dozen infants. If then we were
to suppose a pendulum between the value of human life and that of
property one could suggest that property is increasingly at a
premium - and this may well also be impacted by global warming’s
effects.
The
is the context by which the post colonial era can be understood.
The Axis nations, and before that Imperial Germany were essentially
seeking to gain the sort of colonial empire that had seemingly so
enriched Great Britain. To end the constant wars for control of the
third world Roosevelt agreed to help Britain if Britain would agree
to relinquish her colonies after the war. This is what happened.
Still
the same forces that brought us slavery and the Imperial empire were
still in place and they rapidly began the formation of the post
colonial world - one where the natural resources and labor of the
third world would continue to serve capitol but the responsibility
for the maintenance of the resident populations, health, housing and
education, would be given to the local states.
Some of the
new nations, Jamaica for instance, used their independence to attempt
a total break with the world economic order and the results were not
good.
I’ll admit there
are times I get discouraged in these writings - no one seems to get
it, nor if they were to take the time and effort to understand does
it seem they would value it. But I like to think that this
understanding, hopefully unfettered by the constraints of ordinary
society, may be of use to someone, somewhere, some lucky person or
persons.
In retrospect it’s
possible to suggest that the reason I am not selling books at twenty
dollars a pop to up and coming world shapers and movers and shakers
is most of the futurist books claim they can make you rich and/or
happy with the wondrous events “just around the corner”.
It
could be suggested I have a scientific orientation, which demands
that any hypothesis be proven in as many situations as the scientist
can imagine.
But
a better model might be that of medicine. One of my early career
goals, shot down by circumstance, was to be a psychoanalyst and in
any case medicine is about two things - finding out what’s wrong
and fixing it. There is a school of psychology that in effect studies
what is right but most people consult physicians only in distress.
To
say this yet another way, I have and will continue to, sought to
identify the possible problems we may face in the future - if not to
eliminate them then perhaps to mitigate them. I wish I could give you
some magic elixir, or cure, but among other things that’s only
possible in the face of actual circumstances.
When you come right
down to it there’s not much I can do and again I resort to the
psychoanalytic model where the therapeutic process focuses more on
avoiding current and future f*ckups then in somehow relieving the
wounds of the past. As they say, “It is not much but it will
suffice - it has to.”
Outro
Outro
For the record and those interested these articles are usually
written in three or four sessions - more then that and they tend to
be all over the place. Twain, famously said that had more to say
he'd have written a shorter letter, and in my case the more factual
the source material, usually the briefer I can be.
And
often I write the bulk of the essay initially and then return to add
another 20 % or so, usually in an effort to tie it into the readers
frame of reference, which I understand may not be as academic as
mine.
And
Hemingway reminds us that one can only produce a certain amount
before needing time to "Let the well refill".The great
social novelist Honore Balzac could write at twelve hour stretches
for days and weeks - but that, after all was fiction
An
nineteenth century English poet, who's name escapes me,said when he
wrote his poems they were between God and him and then after a few
days God only knows what they meant.
I
find that the great benefit of obscurity is that one is not shaped to
fit the mold of prevailing wisdom. (As an aside, in my other life, as
a musician, this is a real problem in that the central controllers in
the big cities have ruined many a talented band and artist.)
Finally then in commenting on the essay you, hopefully, have just
read I'll say this. One is that increasingly I seem to be leaving the
realm of current business trends and venturing back into
anthropology. My apologies :-)
Actually
this is not as great a digression as it may appear at first. In the
fifties there was great concern in the US about the "Hidden
Persuaders" - advertisers who could control our minds and pocket
books, later on many conspiracy theorists came to the fore and today
we are concerned with the degree to which organizations know and
thereby control, our personal decisions.
Francis Fukuyama, Ray
Kurzweil and others all have different ideas as to what the near
future will bring. What they agree on is that science and technology
will continue to advance. I separate the concepts of science and
technology and us the idea of Teknos as initially defined by Lewis
Mumford, although I am not primarily concerned, as he was, with the
design of humane living habitates.
The
concept of Teknos we are here addressing is the broader concept of
"the maker." I wish to avoid theological issues but
immediately one can see that the maker's subject, increadingly is the
remaker, of mankind. That role hitherto has been left to God, as the
uncreated creator, and left to sort itself out, an option we are
increasingly unable to afford ourselves of.
Jacques
Ellul, a French law professor of the mid 20th century, was able to
see how technological process invariably tended towards
totalitatianism, a situation he experienced first hand as an occupant
of Nazi occupied France.
To
free ourselves of debilitating limitations we must be prepared to
answer all questions as to how we would like to live our lives. I
refer you to the question of "What is life for?" Do we
serve machines, or the other way around? It is not settled nor will
ever be.
Even
logic has problems with this. Is it valid to detroy one section of a
population in order to advance another?
Information
theory, like music, is an old science. However primitive it still
functioned as the glue of society. Today I would lie to leave you
with two suggestions, or thought experiments.
One
is that there is nearly always an element of sacrifice. The Greeks
would send 20 of their best men and maidens to be the food of the
Minotaur. However we view it, via individual or collective the notion
of pure logic, Kantian interpretation aside, seems to demand
sacrifice.
Secondly,
When we speak of slavery, human sacrifice, or any of the past human
behaviors we now find abhorrant it is important to realize that such
behavior in its day was the norm. We still regularly kill convicted
murderers in the US and there's little opposition to it, even as we
know that a certain percentage of those put to death are innocent.
Furthermore
when we start to deal with these practices, which have become the
norm they d not come into being overnight. unlike science, which can
proceed in leaps and bounds, or evolution, society, left to it's own
pace proceed in gradual steps.
First
something is a possibility, a risk that is either taken or not, then
if successful, it becomes the custom of the land, and only then,
finally it becomes codified into words as law.
And
I will leave you with the suggestion that we judge others not only by
what they do, but by what they not do as well.
One last though relating to something I touched upon in the body of the previous essay. It has to do with paradox of mind. What we might call the superficial paradox is actually the dialectical flip flop. One thing turns into it's opposite. Actually the original thing is still there, but what with most things in the universe occurring in waves the original concept or definition goes into abeyance.
Real paradox, as in Zeno's paradoxs is much weirder and in fact cannot actually be described - er, hence the paradox. It is a state of things were two contradictory existences seem to occupy the same reality at the same time.
The fact is the mathematical axioms of Euclid cannot explain these paradox's and yet they are the basis of all math. Actually, like Godel's theorem it's beyond my skills, but it seems to explain things.
What I'm about to say is much simpler. As time goes by the conservative movement it tending towards it's more extreme dogmatic, and ideologically driven forms. The young turks of the Republican party for instance admire the libertarian motives of An Rynd. I'm not sanguine about this or willing to declare it trivial because my experience in politics suggests that for every outward conservative there's several more in the background egging them on.
As I mentioned in relation to the stock market however the result of total freedom from laws is not absolute power, but our old friend chaos. You can to an extent, "ride the tiger", as was done by people in the late nineteen twenties. In fact one of the specific blind spots in American history is the question as to what extent the great depression was predictable and why wasn't it?
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